In a groundbreaking discovery, researchers from the University of Queensland have developed a model that can accurately predict the severity of upcoming tick seasons, allowing veterinarians and pet owners to prepare for the challenges ahead.
Linking Weather and Tick Paralysis
In an examination drove by Professor Stephen Barker at UQ’s School of Chemistry and Molecular Biosciences, analysts have uncovered an unequivocal relationship between climate patterns and the episode of doggy and little cat tick paralysis cases. The researchers found that the success of the heartbeat — and therefore, number of ticks sneaking hots in each spring/summer cycle — depends on weather conditions during the prior summer.
When the previous summer is very hot and dry, most tick eggs will die so there is likely to be less risk of tick paralysis. However, in a milder climate where there is enough moisture for the majority of tick eggs to hatch and reach maturity to find pets as hosts, these same concerns can create the opposite effect. Using this link, the researchers have been able to create a model that predicts how bad the tick season will be, with some pretty impressive results.
What to Expect in Tick Season 2024
The newly-tested model, based on historical climate and veterinary data, achieved accuracy of just 1.3 per cent This is a prediction by the researchers based on weather data from the 2023-24 eastern Australian southeast Queensland summer for tick population numbers in late 2024.
The model predicts that 10 per cent of vet consultations on the Sunshine Coast are for tick paralysis, Brisbane is at 5 per cent and the Gold Coast at 7 per cent. This is consistent with an average tick season over 2021 to 2023, with around 10% of veterinary visits in eastern Australia attributable to tick paralysis.
But while an ‘average’ tick season might seem far preferable to a record-breaking one, that is still 4-5,000 vet visits in eastern Australia caused by ticks. It’s a dark reality, but 1 in every 10 of these pets either die from the toxin ticks inject into them, or have to be put down because their condition is so severe. The scientists warned this forecast should not lull pet owners into a false sense of security and that an average season can be absolutely devastating to many cherished companions.
Conclusion
The research carried out through The University of Queensland team, has the potential to change how pet owners and veterinarians approach the problem of tick paralysis. This model is proactive as it gives a precise prediction of the upcoming tick season which in turn empower pet owners and healthcare professionals to safeguard their loved ones. This research provides a valuable tool to aid in the fight to prevent tick-borne diseases, from keeping up with preventative treatments or advising dog owners as to which walking areas are less likely spatter them with infected blood. When thinking about the next crop of ticks to appear — in 2024, say — this predictive model demonstrates just how valuable scientific inquiry can be when it comes generating real difference in the lives of our furry little friends.
