If you were to read the study, from that time on, you started to learn about this amazing story where global warming was no longer an issue, it went through this diffusive panel of thawing permafrost and would abruptly intensify fire in part of northern Canada and Siberia. These northern ecosystems interact with the climate in a complex dance of balances, but as the climate changes some long-held balances could be disrupted.
Wildfire surge driven by permafrost thaw
Climate models suggest that if global temperatures continue to rise, we will see significantly more and larger wildfires as permafrost thaws in the Subarctic and Arctic regions, according to a new study published in Nature Communications.
Mud and silt in permafrost, the permanently frozen soil that covers much of the northern latitudes, have long acted as a buffer to tamping down wildfire within waterlogged soils. But with the permafrost starting to melt due to climate change, soil will be drier than usual and then temperatures are right for wildfires.
With the help of an ensemble of 50 climate simulations the researchers showed that in most regions, anthropogenic permafrost thawing is likely to be widespread by end-of-the-century. What we will see is a rapid drying of the soil, leading to groundwater and attempting to fill that void, but only getting drawn up from the ground more quickly in time for fire season (a sudden drop in moisture content), which allows the surface of the land to warm faster and dry out rapidly (as does much of what’s floating above our heads in air).
Arctic Wildfire Intervention Council
The researchers said the growing season already is becoming several weeks longer because of warming, so more fuel for swifter and more intense burns will become available from vegetation biomass that has grown faster because of the CO2 fertilisation effect. Increased atmospheric CO2 will promote the growth in plant biomass and shrubs at high latitudes, which provides more fuel for the fires to burn.
The warmer, drier conditions will lead to more and larger wildfires in the Subarctic and Arctic in a feedback loop between permafrost thawing, soil drying out, and vegetation growth. The team cautions that its model simulations suggest an abrupt transition from nearly no fires to very intense fires over a period of only a few years in the second half of the century.
Such a rapid shift might have disastrous effects on the vulnerable Arctic ecosystems, which are already struggling to cope with climate change impacts. These fires are also expected to make the permafrost thawing processes worse, thus releasing more carbon dioxide, black and organic carbon (which can then become another very potent greenhouse gas), fueling further burning in one giant climate feedback loop that would likely push these northern regions into an irreversible state.
Conclusion
The results of this study highlight a pressing need to consider the fate of Arctic and Subarctic systems in a changing climate. With global temperatures on a relentless incline it seems likely that we could very well be facing the twin threats of larger, more intense fires stemming from thawing permafrost and high rates of vegetation growth, yet AI remains only questionably better at forecasting them. To mitigate these risks, a strategic approach is likely required: reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to combat global warming, better understanding of the complex interactions among permafrost-soil-fire, and specific actions tailored to protect the fragile northern ecosystems.
