NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Atlas is undergoing a major update to account for the impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation events. This article explores the significance of this update and how it will help communities across the nation prepare for the challenges ahead.
Addressing the New Normal
In a world of changing climate, the old arguments about how often and how hard extreme precipitation is falling no longer stack up. For years the NOAA Precipitation Frequency Atlas was created as a reference for floodplain managers, city planners, civil engineers and developers under traditional assumptions of stationary climate.
But as the evidence grows that extreme precipitation is getting significantly worse, and it’s not just a bigger problem in Texas, nationwide flood risk—it may not be to everyone’s liking but until Congress can find some actual money—a significant step forward for NOAA at least. The new Atlas 15 will include projections of how the climate is expected to change in the future, giving us a clearer and more current picture of what precipitation frequency and flood risk communities across the country may experience well into the 21st century.
This is significant, because it will help to ensure that the non-partisan database of record for federal infrastructure planning and design reflects new climate-related realities. In a time when water challenges facing the nation are growing ever more complex, Atlas 15 will continue to build on the Atlas 14 standard and deliver an equal service to all communities working toward climate resilience.
A Collective Initiative for Climate Adaptability
Atlas 15 is being developed by a group of stakeholders that includes engineers, city planners and climate scientists. NOAA is casting a wide net, putting the Montana pilot version out there for all these constituents to comment on before broadening it to the whole country.
Excellent feedback that will help us shape the final data set to serve a diverse array of communities from coast-to-coast. Two volumes of the pilot project: one based on observational trends and the other generic future conditions from climate model output data. By comparing these 2 methods, stake holders can help in sharing their insights on how useful or reliable the approaches are.
Following NOAA’s policy, Atlas 15 must pass a thorough peer-review process ensuring this resource is as good and reliable as can be. The comprehensive review, which included the input of many stakeholders will allow for a dataset that is scientifically sound as well as feasible for use in practice.
Finally, in the following year NOAA will release preliminary evaluation data for the lower 48 states, opening this feedback and review process to an even larger geographic area. Communities across the country will have that information available to them by the time Atlas 15 is published in 2026 and 2027, so that they can prepare for future climate conditions and make strides toward increased resiliency against more frequent and severe precip events.
Conclusion
The newly updated Precipitation Frequency Atlas from NOAA — filled with brand-new numbers on rain, snow and everything in between — is nothing short of revolutionary for communities nationwide. Integrating climate trend data into the standard, this vital tool offers a more precise and current rendering of precipitation frequency and flood risk ahead for communities across the nation.
Through a collaborative process with feedback from stakeholders and a comprehensive peer-review ensure that Atlas 15 will be useful for engineers, city planners, and climate scientists. The point is, it can be used not only to inspire but assist communities in their climate change resiliency and make the new normal of a changing climate relatable.
