A major academic study warns of the catastrophic and long-lasting consequences of exceeding the 1.5°C global warming limit, even temporarily. With existing climate pledges falling short, the world faces the sobering reality of an ‘overshoot’ scenario, where the damage may be irreversible. This blog explores the urgent need for immediate emissions reductions and the daunting challenges of reversing the impacts. Paris Agreement, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions
Crossing the Point of No Return
The study paints a sobering picture of the consequences of temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C global warming threshold, even if temperatures are later brought back down. According to the researchers, an ‘overshoot’ scenario could trigger a cascade of irreversible changes, with sea levels rising an additional 16 inches and the potential for large-scale release of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost and peatlands.
The findings reinforce the urgent need for governments to take immediate action to reduce emissions and keep global warming as low as possible. As Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, the lead author of the study, states, ‘If you want to limit the climate risks in an effective manner, the race to net zero needs to be seen for what it is.’
Overconfidence in Reversing the Damage
The study cautions against ‘overconfidence’ in the ability to reverse the damage from an overshoot scenario through technology-driven carbon removal. The authors warn that ‘we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today.’ This sobering assessment challenges the notion that temporary overshooting can be easily corrected, highlighting the irreversible consequences that may linger for centuries or even millennia.
The study’s findings underscore the critical importance of meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, which is becoming increasingly difficult as global emissions continue to rise. Policymakers and scientists must grapple with the realities of an overshoot scenario and work tirelessly to prevent it from becoming a reality.
The Race to Net Zero: A Matter of Survival
The study’s authors emphasize that the ‘race to net zero’ must be seen for the urgency it truly represents. Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 is the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C and avoid the catastrophic consequences of an overshoot. This will require a massive scaling up of carbon removal technologies, which are currently far from guaranteed to be effective at the necessary scale.
The findings of this study serve as a wake-up call for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike. We must act now to drastically reduce emissions and invest in the development and deployment of carbon removal solutions. Failure to do so will jeopardize the future of our planet and the well-being of generations to come. The time to act is now, before the point of no return is crossed.
