New research suggests that relaxing China’s fertility restrictions could increase its future carbon emissions, making it more difficult for the country to achieve its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060. The study analyzes the projected demographic and environmental impacts of different population policies, including China’s former two-child policy and its current three-child policy. The findings highlight the complex relationship between population growth, age distribution, and a country’s carbon footprint.
Demographic Changes and China’s Carbon Footprint
China’s population policies have undergone significant changes over the years, with the one-child policy being replaced by a two-child policy in 2015 and then a three-child policy in 2021. These policy shifts aim to address the country’s aging population and declining birth rates. However, the researchers found that even the current three-child policy is unlikely to prevent a population contraction, with China’s population projected to decline to around 1.3 billion by 2060.
The researchers also examined the impact of these demographic changes on China’s carbon footprint. They found that allowing for more children under the relaxed fertility policies would lead to a larger population and, consequently, a greater carbon footprint. This would make it more challenging for China to achieve its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060.
Age Distribution and Carbon Emissions
The study also highlighted the relationship between age distribution and carbon emissions in China. Younger generations tend to have a higher carbon footprint due to their greater wealth and consumption levels. In contrast, older individuals generally have a lower carbon footprint.
Under the former two-child policy, the researchers estimated that the proportion of the population over the age of 65 would increase to 42% by 2060. This aging population could lead to a lower overall carbon footprint, as older individuals tend to consume less and have a smaller environmental impact. However, the researchers found that the current three-child policy would result in a slightly younger population, with 37% of the population being over 65 by 2060.
This shift in age distribution could potentially lead to a higher carbon footprint, as the younger generations would have more purchasing power and engage in more carbon-intensive activities. The study suggests that policymakers will need to consider these demographic changes and their implications for China’s sustainability goals.
Additionally, the researchers analyzed the impact of delayed retirement policies on China’s future carbon footprint. They found that while raising the retirement age might slightly increase the country’s carbon emissions, it would also help alleviate the pressures of an aging population and reduce dependency ratios.
Promoting Sustainable Lifestyles
The study’s lead author, Professor Zhifu Mi, emphasized the importance of encouraging young people in China to adopt more sustainable lifestyles. This could involve measures such as reducing consumption, using public transportation, and purchasing long-lasting goods.
The researchers hope that this study will inform policymakers and contribute to the development of policies that support China’s transition to a low-carbon economy. By understanding the complex relationship between population growth, age distribution, and carbon emissions, China can better navigate the challenges of achieving its ambitious climate goals.
Overall, the study highlights the need for a holistic approach to addressing the environmental implications of population policies. As China continues to grapple with demographic changes, policymakers must carefully consider the long-term impacts on the country’s carbon footprint and sustainability objectives.
