Researchers have developed a groundbreaking gene-based model that can predict the awakening of cherry tree buds in Japan, a crucial step in forecasting the iconic spring bloom. This discovery not only enhances the accuracy of flowering forecasts but also sheds light on the potential impact of climate change on this beloved natural phenomenon.
Unlocking the Dormancy Puzzle
Japan’s Cherry Blossoms, or rather Sakuras have a seraphic effect to not just the beholders but are one of those cultural experiences that everyone should have in their lifetime. More mesmerizing to local and foreign tourists alike is the synchronized blooming of cherry blossoms across the nation, thanks in large part to the Somei Yoshino cultivar that has come to symbolize spring in Japan.
Yet this variable timing has presented a puzzle for forecasters and festival planners alike. The confusion of when exactly the buds begin to stir centers around a delicate balance between two dormancy phases, endo dormancy, and eco dormancy — both largely driven by temperature oscillations. Enter the revolutionary breakthrough from Kyushu University and the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute:
Cracking the Genetic Code
The researchers have identified a new genetic model that predicts the Hindu cherry tree buds emerge the best of wood dormancy, the period and how long would seeds held before they begin to sprout.
Specifically, the team identified a set of genes, called DAM (Dormancy-Associated MADS-box) family that helps in keeping endo dormancy intact. Significantly, the expression of DAM4 diminished with an increasing amount of days under 10.1°C, identifying this gene as a major biomarker for breaking bud endodormancy.
With this new information, researchers developed a model that predicts the number of days until endo dormancy is over with historical temperature. Their research suggests that the breaking of endodormancy has been delayed by an average of 2.3 days per decade over the last three decades, a change most likely driven by responses to climate change.
Conclusion
While this gene-based model significantly improved the precision of cherry blossom forecasting, it also sheds a light on another critical challenge — the consequences of climate change on one of Japan’s most cherished natural marvels. By identifying the genetic pathways that control dormancy and flowering, researchers could develop ways to combat climate change so that generations will always be able to appreciate the ephemeral pink splash of early spring.
