Decision makers in the Western United States can benefit from a new computational tool that will radically change the way they prepare for and respond to various climate conditions throughout the Colorado River basin as it faces increasing stress due to climate change and continued drought.
Bridging the Gap
The Colorado River provides water to some 40 million homes, farms and industries in seven states _ a population of over 50 million people. But that resource is facing challenges due to the effects of climate change and ongoing drought. To aid in the navigability of this murky, cloudy future for decision-makers, a team of researchers at Penn State developed the Framework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC). This novel approach bridges the gap between traditional scenario planning and exploratory modeling techniques, striking a balance that honors the complexities of the situation but also offers something actionable for decision-makers and stakeholders.
Exploring Plausible Futures
The FRNSIC tool starts with exploratory modeling and learning from many different hypothesized plausible futures in the Colorado River basin. That way the scientists can paint a picture of what conceivable futures could be, from high-warming to low-warming in the region, and then determine how things like policy levers would make that future happen. Following initial exploration, the tool classifies and identifies locally-meaningful narratives relevant for decision-makers. This approach is to guarantee that the scenarios to be examined are not only realistic in their depth and breadth of representing the system, but also with stakeholders with appropriate level of concerns and priorities.
Conclusion
The Penn State researchers, therefore, believe that their newly designed FRNSIC tool is a major step forward for arming decision-makers with an improved perspective for how to plan in this dynamically uncertain world of the Colorado River basin. The approach also links traditional scenario planning with exploratory modeling to give policymakers and stakeholders a more detailed, but practical, way to see the possibilities of climate change and drought and offer strategies that could be implemented practically in response. Given the challenges posed by a changing climate in the Western U.S., FRNSIC and other similar tools will be critical to helping chart a path towards resilience in this region.
