Scientists have uncovered a complex web of climate factors that influence the devastating outbreaks of the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria. This research provides crucial insights into predicting and managing future locust plagues that threaten food security across Africa and Asia. By analyzing meteorological data and locust sightings, the study reveals that temperature, cloud cover, and wind patterns are the key drivers behind the locust’s migratory patterns and population surges. This newfound understanding can help develop more effective strategies to combat these agricultural pests and safeguard the livelihoods of millions. Desert locust, Locust plague, Climate
The desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria, is one of the most destructive agricultural pests in the world. These short-horned grasshoppers have a unique ability to transform from solitary insects into gregarious swarms, capable of devouring entire fields of crops as they migrate across continents. The recent outbreak of desert locusts in 2019-2020, which originated from the Horn of Africa and spread to parts of South and Southwest Asia, including India, has highlighted the urgent need to understand the underlying factors driving these devastating plagues.
Unraveling the Climate-Locust Connection
A team of researchers from the University of Calcutta, India, set out to investigate the complex interplay between climate and the occurrence of desert locust outbreaks. By analyzing meteorological data and locust sightings from 63 outbreak stations across seven Indian states, the scientists have uncovered the key climatic factors that influence the locust’s lifecycle and migration patterns.
Temperature: The Critical Trigger
The study found that temperature is the most significant factor in determining the suitability of an area for locust breeding and swarm formation. The researchers identified that the optimal temperature range for locust development and population growth falls between 31°C and 36°C. This temperature window allows for successful egg incubation, nymphal hatching, and adult maturation, setting the stage for potential plague outbreaks.
The Role of Cloud Cover and Wind Patterns
In addition to temperature, the study also highlighted the crucial impact of cloud cover and wind patterns on locust movement and dispersal. Cloud cover was found to significantly influence the locusts’ flight activity, with swarms typically taking flight on sunny days with warm temperatures, but remaining grounded on cloudy days. Furthermore, the prevailing wind direction played a vital role in guiding the locust swarms’ trajectories, enabling them to traverse vast distances and invade new territories.
Mapping the Hotspots of Locust Suitability
By employing advanced statistical models, the researchers were able to generate detailed maps projecting the areas most suitable for future locust outbreaks. These “Projected Locust Suitability” (PLS) maps identified that 42.7% to 52.8% of the studied region in western and central India fell under high to very high locust suitability zones. The Ajmer-Gwalior-Allahabad tract and the Aligarh-Bareilly-Lakhimpur tract were identified as the areas most prone to future locust invasions.
Implications for Locust Management
The findings of this study have significant implications for the development of sustainable locust management strategies. By pinpointing the critical climatic factors and geographic hotspots for locust outbreaks, policymakers and agricultural authorities can now implement targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of these destructive pests.
Early Warning Systems: The ability to accurately predict areas at high risk of locust infestations will enable the establishment of early warning systems, allowing for timely deployment of control measures and resource allocation.
Informed Land Use Policies: The study’s insights can guide the formulation of land use policies that consider the climatic suitability for locust breeding, helping to minimize the risk of future outbreaks.
Proactive Monitoring and Response: By understanding the critical climatic thresholds and migration patterns, authorities can enhance their monitoring and rapid response capabilities to effectively manage locust populations before they spiral out of control.
In conclusion, this groundbreaking research has shed light on the complex interplay between climate and the devastating desert locust, paving the way for more effective and sustainable strategies to safeguard food security and the livelihoods of millions across the affected regions.
Author credit: This article is based on research by Biswarup Mitra, Amiya Gayen, Sk. Mafizul Haque, Amlan Das.
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