A new study reveals that even if global warming is kept below 1.5°C, as aimed for in the Paris Agreement, wildfires will significantly reduce the land’s ability to absorb carbon. The findings, published in Nature Geoscience, suggest that the current climate models used to determine the 1.5°C target failed to account for the impact of fire and vegetation. This oversight means we may have less time than previously thought to mitigate the devastating effects of climate change.
The Fiery Truth
Fire has a significant impact on the ability of land to take up carbon once global warming reaches 1.07°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the research. I.e. fire is already seriously hindering the Earth’s ability to soak up carbon from the atmosphere, even with warming of less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Taking this into account, the researchers estimate that — factoring in fire effects — we must cut global CO2 emissions by 5% if we are to limit warming at no more than 1.5°C; or by 5% if we want to avoid surpassing 2°C of warming, totaling 25 gigatons and 64 gigatons of CO2 lost from our remaining carbon budget for the respective targets. This is a very big deal, and it does not bode well: It means that we now have even less time to force massive reductions in greenhouse gases if we are to head off catastrophic consequences from climate change.
Flaws in the Climate Models
The researchers note that the climate simulations designed to inform the politically acceptable 1.5°C Paris Agreement target contained significant gaps relating to fire and vegetation impacts. The consequence of this is that it has made us underestimate just how hard it will be to do something about climate change.
One of the lead authors said “The climate models we’ve been using to set global temperature targets have been missing a key piece of the puzzle. “By also factoring in the impacts of fire, as well as other ecosystem disturbances and loss of intact forest areas, we present a more comprehensive view on how land carbon uptake is being compromised — even if we manage to achieve 1.5°C,” he added. It also underscores the necessity for us to constantly be refining, improving, and updating our climate models so that they properly encapsulate the intricate relationship between Earth systems.
The Urgent Need for Action
These results should serve as a stark warning to policymakers and the international community. “Of course, limiting 1.5°C remains the goal for avoiding climate chaos, but these data suggest that globally we are already seeing major upheaval in at least one crucial element of Earth’s ecosystems due to fire,” they write.
One of the authors of the study said: “We are rapidly running out of time. Now, as the land is losing its capacity to absorb carbon dioxide any more swiftly, we go into urgent climate crisis mode. The urgent need requires a range of immediate action, from reducing greenhouse gas emissions to preventive and suppressive measures, and complementary actions to protect and restore natural ecosystems. But if the carbon cycle can be restored and maintained on a global scale, so too does our ability to shape a sustainable future.
