A recent University of Michigan survey reveals a notable shift in American consumers’ views on trade and immigration, with support for both declining since 2020. The data also shows a split along socioeconomic lines, with less educated, lower-income, and less wealthy consumers holding more negative perceptions. However, opinions on taxing the wealthy remained relatively unchanged. This blog post dives deeper into the survey findings and explores the potential factors driving these changing attitudes.International trade, immigration, and taxation are complex topics that continue to shape economic and political discourse in the United States.
Trade Support — The Shifting Sand
And consumer support for greater trade has plummeted, with only 54% now backing it compared to 68 % last year in the survey data. This change is especially evident among various socioeconomic groups; e.g., less educated, lower-income, and less affluent folks are much more dubious about the economic benefits of trade.
Curiously, the gap between the parties on this question is smaller than it has been for any of these questions to date; 69 percent of Democrats think more trade would benefit our economy while a much lower 46% of Republicans agree. Independents come in between, with 55% backing more trade. This corresponds with the notion that attributes beyond party, like financial condition and education, can be important factors in brokering opinion about trade.
TRUMP’S WIN BECAUSE OF ‘SHIFTING SANDS’OF IMMIGRATION SENTIMENT
Perceptions of the economic consequences of immigration have undergone an even steeper shift since last years’ 2020 presidential election. Consumers of 2020 were more inclined to see immigration as a net economic plus and less likely to favor the restrictive immigration policies of the previous administration. But the most recent poll demonstrates that support for immigration has plummeted among every sociodemographic group.
Republicans saw the greatest change, with 47% of them saying lower immigration is best for the economy in 2020 — compared to 84% saying that in 2024. Similarly, though Democrats have typically tended to hold more favorable views of immigration, a much smaller share — just 48% — now say that more immigration is good for the economy, down from 62% four years ago. This change in attitude could have major implications for the future of immigration policy and discussions.
Consistent Stance on Taxing the Rich
While these perspectives on trade and immigration have shifted over the past few years, Americans’ views of the possible consequences of hiking taxes on wealthy people only show modest wedge from 2020 and 2016. In a August 2-5, Gallup poll, 47% of consumers think raising taxes on the wealthy would help the economy while only 25% think it would harm.
The demographics on this question are heavily polarized by party: there are significant gaps between Democrats and Republicans. But Independents — who are generally more moderate in their views and were as likely to back a wealth tax as rank-and-file Democrats last year — turned less supportive this time around. This implies that the ongoing debates about income inequality and distribution of wealth have not fundamentally altered consumers’ attitudes towards this policy—at least in the short run.
