Tesla is set to unveil its long-awaited robotaxi, the Cybercab, amid skepticism from industry analysts regarding the readiness of the technology powering it. The event, dubbed “We, Robot,” is expected to showcase Tesla’s progress in artificial intelligence and robotics, but some experts doubt whether the company has truly achieved the level of autonomous driving required for a safe and reliable robotaxi service.
Promises, Delays, and Doubts
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been promising a fleet of autonomous robotaxis for over five years, but his past predictions have proven overly optimistic. The company’s current “Full Self-Driving” software, which it has been selling for nine years, still requires human supervision to prevent crashes.
Some analysts, like Bryant Walker Smith from the University of South Carolina, are skeptical that Tesla will be able to demonstrate a truly self-driving system, even in a limited and well-known area. Smith argues that if Tesla had such a breakthrough, it would be showcasing it on public roads, not in a closed lot. Without a clear advancement in autonomous technology, the unveiling may simply showcase a vehicle without pedals or a steering wheel, which has already been done by other companies.
The Challenge of Autonomous Driving
Developing a combination of hardware, software, and the necessary infrastructure to safely operate a vehicle without human supervision on public roads in any condition is an immense challenge. Tesla’s annual demonstrations of its less-sophisticated Autopilot driver-assist system have not been reassuring, according to Smith.
The company’s recent issues with its Full Self-Driving system, including a recall due to the software’s ability to violate traffic laws, and a fatal crash involving a Tesla using the feature, have further raised doubts about the readiness of the technology. The ongoing scrutiny from regulators and the Justice Department also casts a shadow over Tesla’s autonomy claims.
Expectations and Skepticism
While some industry analysts, like Wedbush’s Dan Ives, are bullish on the potential of Tesla’s robotaxi unveiling, others are more skeptical. Ives expects updates on the Cybercab, breakthroughs in Full Self-Driving, and a phased-in strategy for rolling out the robotaxi service within the next year.
However, other analysts, such as TD Cowen’s Jeff Osborne, believe the event will be “light on details” and mainly appeal to Tesla’s most dedicated supporters. The ongoing political polarization surrounding Elon Musk and his endorsement of conservative causes may also be tarnishing the Tesla brand among some potential buyers.
