The Carolinas have been hit by a staggering number of historically rare and devastating storms in recent years, including Hurricane Helene in 2024, Hurricane Florence in 2018, and Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Experts believe this is due to a combination of factors, including underestimated probabilities and the effects of climate change. This article explores the science behind these extreme weather events and what they mean for the future of the region. Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Matthew, Climate change
Underestimating the Odds
What The Last Drop of Water Decided estimates of return periods for rainfall, or how often scientists expect extreme storms of a certain size to occur, are derived from historical data. Nevertheless, with each new storm that happens, and as more trustworthy information is gathered for refining this analysis, these estimates are subject to revision on the conservative side (lower correction factor) if not clearly an underestimate.
While the NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) Atlas 14 report used by infrastructure engineers and architects to create their designs was updated in 2018, the data it considered only extended through 2000 for the Carolinas. This does make sense, given the unprecedented number of 1 in a 1,000 year storms we are seeing in this area lately — clearly the actual probability was underestimated.
It also points out that these probabilities are based on a planet with a stable climate, and climatic change is providing the environment more conducive to storm origination and storm feeding, increasing such major precipitation events.
The Impact of Climate Change
Climate change is a big driver in the growth of these storms as detailed in the article. Because warmer air can carry more moisture, a warmer ocean means more fuel for the rains. That has tilted towards heavier rain events and been a big challenge for infrastructure including older stormwater systems as well as emergency preparedness planning and recovery processes.
For instance, the piece mentions Hurricane Helene in 2024 that led to deadly and costly floods in West North Carolina where rainfall equated to an average event every 1,000 years. An as-yet-unnamed storm in mid-September also dropped more than a foot of rain near the Atlantic coast, but the only official 1,000-year rainstorm to make an appearance in North Carolina this year was Matthew.
The piece highlights how such extremes of weather events are fast becoming the norm and raised calls from the experts for a review of statistical models and infrastructure planning to take account of any changes occurring due to climate change.
Planning for the Future
The piece showcases the research underway in the Carolinas to learn more and plan ahead for changing storm patterns. Development under way by NOAA for Atlas 15, based on later data and climate change impacts on estimates of rainfall return periods.
As a result, North Carolina has become the first state to give our AGI long wave atlas 15 a name, realizing that we need to build transportation infrastructure more resilient than what it takes to survive events like Hurricane Florence or Hurricane Helene. Following are real time updates, and observation in present epidemic scenario will definitely going to help in planning to decision making in the region.
But the article adds that even with any gains there will always be extreme rainfall which, regardless of any investment, are felt by many communities. The goal is not to predict storms more accurately, but to get a better handle on what we already know and to take advantage of it with the best available data and science.
