Learn about the complicated and fluid partnership of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with sea-level change. Learn new insights on the most recent science and critical uncertainties that still confront us regarding this crucial environmental issue.
The Uncertain Future
In future decades to centuries, the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) – the largest store of ice on Earth — may raise sea levels by a meter or more, 5 meters or not even be responsible for overall sea level rise of up to 2 meters. It’s a tough question, to be honest, with the environment in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean being so dynamic and changeable all of the time.
The uncertainty associated with the AIS and its future contribution to SLR is a major challenge for policy-makers, decision-makers in planning sectors and communities that will have to learn how to deal with a changing world. An international team of scientists from Australia, the US and Canada have discovered ways to reduce these uncertainties while also identifying key areas for further research that will improve predictions oredictions.
Unraveling the Complexities
Led by Australian Antarctic Division glaciologist Dr Ben Galton-Fenzi, the team of international researchers reviewed the latest research on the key processes and feedbacks that could push the AIS to retreat. They assessed how Antarctica is expected to affect sea-level rise over the next few decades to centuries and where the uncertainties are that still limit our ability to make accurate predictions about how the ice sheet will behave moving forward.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet expands as snow falls ultimately compresses into ice, and contracts when icebergs calve off and melt from below the ice shelves. Nevertheless, the ice sheet’s behavior is difficult to model in detail because of complicated interactions and feedbacks within these physical processes, as well as how the ice slides.
Tipping points, when they pass, can cause West Antarctica to raise sea levels disproportionately. Problems in the simulation of these physical processes and feedback mechanisms with latest climate and ice sheet models, as well no data that can represent those very specific physical processes at the exact time and spatial scales play a major role in this uncertainty.
Conclusion
Reducing the uncertainties related to sea level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will allow policymakers and decision-makers to have better information so they can make appropriate coastal planning, design resilient infrastructure, and implement adaptation strategies. Collaboration between researchers from different disciplines and countries, particularly among nations most at risk of rapid retreat in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, is essential to improving the overall quality of research and speed progress toward narrowing uncertainty.
